The proposed ACC organization. (Click image to view PDF.)

Policymakers now have a tool to help determine whether their intervention strategies in conflict environments are effective. Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments (MPICE), pronounced “M-peace,” is an effort by the U.S. Institute of Peace, DOD, U.S. Agency for International Development, and Department of State. MPICE measures output trends and provides evaluation teams with a capability to generate substantial insight into conflict environments and gauge progress with respect to stabilization continuum.

Built on a theory of change (see figure) outlined in the book The Quest For Viable Peace: International Intervention And Strategies For Conflict Transformation, MPICE measures conditions that impede stability in a society (the “drivers of conflict”), as well as the performance of institutions for the resolution of conflicts in a society. The metrics framework for MPICE was developed with input from broad representation across the stability and reconstruction community with financial support from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute.

The MPICE Process
MPICE seeks to measure the drivers of conflict against the ability of indigenous institutions to resolve conflict peacefully in five sectors or end states essential to the resolution of conflict: stable governance, safe and secure environment, rule of law, sustainable economy, and social well-being. Each sector is divided into the two sub-sectors (conflict drivers and institutional performance), which flow down a hierarchy of goal, indicator, and measure.

The example below from the MPICE Framework is illustrative. The indicator states the concept to be measured, while the measures describe the exact data to be collected. The recommended type of collection methodology to employ for each measure is also suggested — quantitative data (QD) and/or content analysis (CA).

Sector: Stable governance
Sub-Sector: Drivers
Goal: Political grievances diminished
Indicator: Atrocities committed against opposition groups
Measures: 1. Number of incidents of political violence to include extrajudicial killings, disappearances, massacres, vandalism, or “ethnic cleansing” (by identity group) (QD) (CA).
2. Prosecution rates for these crimes (by identity group) (QD).

There are four components to the MPICE system:

• MPICE Framework. The framework is the core of the MPICE system. In 2006 and 2007, hundreds of academics, government officials, military personnel, nongovernmental organization representatives, and other experts and practitioners participated in working sessions and seminars to contribute to the framework across all sectors. The framework is a comprehensive catalog of goals, indicators, and measures that make up the content of the system itself.
• MPICE Tailoring Process. The tailoring process is the procedure used to apply the generic MPICE framework to specific cases. This entails selecting goals and indicators that are salient in a particular mission. It is also necessary to adapt the specific measures associated with each indicator to the local environment and culture.
• MPICE Software Tool. The supporting software tool enables both visualization of a large amount of data in a manner suitable for a range of users, from analysts to policymakers, and the exploration of relationships between different framework elements and measures.
• MPICE Handbook. The handbook describes the methodologies involved in gathering data and how to use them. It also explains the tailoring process and use of the visualization capability and is resident within the tool itself.

  MPICE has the potential to provide planners and policymakers with accurate evaluations of baseline conditions in conflict environments, verifiable measurement of progress toward stability, and strategies for success.

MPICE outcome trends are measured using information obtained through several data collection methodologies: content analysis, expert knowledge, quantitative data, and surveys/polling data, each of which has inherent strengths and weaknesses. In selecting metrics for the major mission elements, it is important to know what is driving the conflict and the extent to which the conflict can be resolved by internal means.

MPICE Testing
MPICE is designed for practitioners, including policymakers, analysts, planners, and program and project implementers in conflict areas around the world. The MPICE system was tested through case study application in Afghanistan and Sudan. It is being employed in support of the U.S. State Department Haiti Stabilization Initiative, focusing on the troubled northwest quarter (Cite Soleil) of Port-au-Prince. An additional application has been initiated in Kosovo and the Afghanistan collection is scheduled to continue.

MPICE is designed to enhance planning for stabilization because it focuses on measuring outcomes rather than outputs. MPICE has the potential to provide planners and policymakers with accurate evaluations of baseline conditions in conflict environments, verifiable measurement of progress toward stability, and strategies for success. The initial versions of the MPICE framework, handbook, and software have been completed. The MPICE capability has been incorporated into the new Transnational Information Sharing Cooperation (TISC) Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD). The TISC JCTD transition manager is the Defense Information Systems Agency and operational managers are European Command and Southern Command.